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With US gross domestic product likely to grow at a subpar rate compared to previous recoveries, headline risk related to the EU debt crisis and temporary softness in economic data will roil the market at times. These hedges provide a degree of protection when panic rules. Read More

  • September 7, 2011

All the economic models in the world won’t do your portfolio any good if you don’t take action to respond to changing market conditions. You don’t need to be early in predicting a recession or bear market to limit the damage to your portfolio. Bearish analysts who call a market… Read More

  • September 2, 2011

My proprietary model puts the odds of the US economy lapsing into recession over the next six months at 1-in-3. Current valuations in the stock market suggest that investors have a far more pessimistic outlook. Read More

  • August 23, 2011
  • Alert

We still expect the US to skirt a recession over the next six to 12 months, though the likelihood of an economic contraction has increased in recent months to a one-in-three chance. Read More